In Emanuel Derman’s book Models. Behaving. Badly, the author lays out a Modeler’s Hippocratic Oath.
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I will remember that I didn’t make the world, and it doesn’t satisfy my equations.
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Though I will use models boldly to estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics.
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I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so.
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Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights.
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I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension.
Since I have no desire for instilling false comfort with the non-replicable, fuzzy mascot/alphabetical order model that I used to predict the NCAA tournament, I report my results after two days in.
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Overall the model has correctly predicted 19 of the 32 games correctly. This is not any better than chance (_p _= .108, one-sided).
- Conditionally, the model performed best in the East Regional (6/8, p = .035, one-sided). It was worst in the West and South Regionals (4/8 in both, _p-_value not reported due to complete stupidity of the model.). The performance in the Midwest Regional, like so many things Midwest, was so-so (5/8, p = .145, one-sided).
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The model has not, as yet, “busted” my bracket.
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I still have 11 of the Sweet Sixteen teams predicted still alive in my bracket.
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I still have 7 of the Elite Eight teams predicted still alive in my bracket.
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I still have 4 of the Final Four predicted teams still alive in my bracket.
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The president also has 19 out of 32 correct predictions in his bracket. Thirteen of his Sweet Sixteen, 7 of his Elite Eight, and 4 of his final four predictions are still alive.
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According to my prediction about the Minnesota/UCLA game being a good matchup…it pretty much was. Both teams played terribly. It was so close that neither team scored a field goal in the first five minutes of the game.
To recover from no only watching this game, but also from the mundanity of this blog post, I offer you comfort in the visualization of Nate Silver’s bracket of predictions.
